The Terminator Index

Latest movement
Awaiting first reading.

What this is

Scope, method, sources and limits

The Terminator Index measures how far real science and engineering have got towards building a Terminator. Forty‑four components — from bipedal locomotion to closed timelike curves — are each scored against what the films actually require, and rolled into a single level between 0 and 1000.

How it is scored

Every component carries a Terminator Readiness Level from 1 to 9, mirroring NASA's technology readiness ladder, and a spec fraction: how much of the canonical requirement the best real system in the world actually meets. Progress is the product of the two, so a mature, fielded technology that delivers three per cent of what the films demand scores three per cent. The index is the weighted mean across all forty‑four, where the weight states how load‑bearing a component is for fielding a machine rather than how interesting it is.

Where the numbers come from

Two separate research tracks. The canon side establishes what the fiction requires, working from the films, shooting scripts and novelizations, with quotes checked against source text rather than recalled. The real‑world side scores the state of the art from primary literature, specification sheets, benchmark tables, regulatory filings and company reporting. Where a widely repeated figure turns out to be marketing, a fan wiki or a press release, it is recorded as such and excluded.

How it updates

Each component is re‑checked on its own cadence — a fortnight for the fast‑moving AI entries, six months for general relativity. New findings enter through a single authenticated endpoint that records what moved, by how much, and on which source. Retractions, failed demonstrations and regulatory reversals move the index down; an index that only rises is not an index.

What it is not

It is not a forecast. It reports where things stand, not when or whether any of this gets built. The spec fractions are judgements, and each entry states the comparison behind its number so the judgement can be argued with. Every score is shown with the count of sources supporting it, and the dataset is downloadable in full.

All 44 components

One cell per component, grouped by category · select for detail

Constituents

Sort any column · select a row for canon, gap, evidence and movers
Index initialising
No component is published before its evidence resolves.

Where the systems live

Coloured by status · select a region to filter

Methodology

The arithmetic, in the open

The level

progress = (TRL / 9) × spec fraction

TI = 1000 × Σ(w · progress) / Σ(w)

Forty-four components across fourteen categories, total weight 313. Weights are editorial and published: they state how load-bearing a component is for fielding a Terminator, not how interesting it is.

Terminator Readiness Level

A one-to-nine ladder mirroring NASA's Technology Readiness Level, applied to a different destination. One is “the physics permits it”. Nine is “in routine operational use, at the required specification”. We score the best demonstrated system in the world, not the median one.

Spec fraction

How much of the canonical requirement the best real system meets. A mature, fielded technology delivering three per cent of what the films require scores 0.03. Each entry states the comparison, so the number can be argued with.

What moves it

Dated, cited, resolving evidence, and nothing else — papers, spec sheets, benchmark tables, filings, regulation. Retractions and failed demonstrations move it down. An index that only rises is not an index.